Will one in two people get cancer?

Written by AI from saved sources. A script checks every quote and every figure against the saved sources, and a second AI compares each claim with its source. How we work and corrections

A British study supported roughly one in two, but this is not an exact forecast for everyone. Newer UK estimates are 43% for females and 45% for males born in 1961. These estimate cancer diagnoses over a lifetime, not your chance of getting cancer soon.

In short: UK estimates of cancer diagnoses over a lifetime (born in 1961): females 43%, males 45%. US lifetime cancer diagnosis estimate for men and women combined: approximately 39.2%. Group estimates cannot predict one person’s outcome exactly.
Checked against: Cancer Research UK, US National Cancer Institute, October 2026.

Why people believe it

Cancer Research UK promoted the headline on 4 February 2015. The study behind it estimated lifetime risks of 53.5% for British men and 47.5% for women born in 1960.

Risk wording can also be hard to understand. A separate 2010 study tested how 263 women understood a message about lifetime breast-cancer risk. Only 48.7% chose the correct meaning. The message compared women with and without certain gene changes. That sample was not representative. The study does not establish why people believe this particular headline.

“Have researchers watched half of us get cancer?”

No: the 2015 study combined national diagnosis and death records with modelled rates covering ages 0–99. For people born in 1960, most of the estimated lifetime risk was forecast, rather than observed. The study forecast cancer rates up to 2040. After 2040, it assumed the rate for each age would stay the same. The estimates also allowed for people dying of other causes before a first cancer diagnosis.

The newer Cancer Research UK calculation also uses observed and forecast rates. Its webpage describes the calculation as unpublished.

“Does that mean a 50% chance soon?”

No: a lifetime and the next year are different time spans. In the 2015 British estimate, over half the lifetime risk for the 1960 birth group came from diagnoses after age 70. The National Cancer Institute says statistics for large groups cannot predict exactly what will happen to one person.

“Why do I also hear 40%?”

The US National Cancer Institute reports an approximate lifetime cancer diagnosis risk of 39.2% for men and women combined, based on 2021–2023 data. That uses a different population and basis from following a British birth group through its lifetime. A birth-year estimate uses rates as people born in the same year get older. A period estimate uses rates from one calendar period across an imagined lifetime.

Cancer Research UK says its lower estimate is mainly due to slower improvement in life expectancy. It also points to slowing or stabilising increases in cancer diagnosis rates. That explanation concerns its revision. It does not tell us how much each factor explains the UK–US gap.

“Are they counting people or cancers?”

One person can have more than one cancer. So counting cancers is different from counting people who get cancer. Cancer Research UK's newer figures account for one person having more than one cancer diagnosis. Both the 2015 study and the newer UK figures leave out a category of skin cancer. It is called non-melanoma skin cancer, a common cancer starting in the skin’s top layer.

Thinking tool: keep the people and the time span

Whenever you see a risk figure, ask: who, over how long, and what event? Here, 43% means estimated lifetime diagnosis risk for UK females born in 1961. It does not mean 43% of all women will be diagnosed next year, or die from cancer. The National Cancer Institute calls a chance of disease “absolute risk”. This chance is for a given group of people over a set time.

Use the same questions on other claims before comparing percentages.

Official positions and dates

The US National Cancer Institute's screening overview defines absolute risk. This means a person’s chance of disease in a given group over a set time. It was updated 20 October 2023. NHS guidance says to speak to a GP about symptoms that are not normal for you. It was last reviewed 27 May 2025. Separately, Cancer Research UK's statistical page was last reviewed on 27 November 2023.

What people also ask

Is it true that 40% of people will get cancer?

About 40% matches the US estimate of 39.2%. That US figure is not a worldwide estimate.

Is it true 40% of Americans will get cancer?

Approximately: the National Cancer Institute reports 39.2% over a lifetime for men and women combined. It uses 2021–2023 data.

Is it true that 50% of people will get cancer?

The 2015 British estimates were 53.5% for men and 47.5% for women born in 1960. That is not exactly 50% for everyone.

Is it true that 1 in 2 will get cancer?

It is a rough lifetime headline. Cancer Research UK's newer wording is “nearly 1 in 2”. Its estimates are 43% for UK females and 45% for males born in 1961.

Check it yourself (5 minutes)

Open Cancer Research UK's Lifetime risk of cancer page.
Use Find for “born in 1961”.
Read the sentence: does it say exactly half of everyone, or give a population, birth year and separate estimates?

What you should have found

“The estimated lifetime risk of being diagnosed with cancer is nearly 1 in 2 (43%) for females, and nearly 1 in 2 (45%) for males born in 1961 in the UK.”

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